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Villarreal vs Real Madrid

Sat 06 Mar 2027, 13:00 UTC · Round 27 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Villarreal win: 24.6%

Draw: 28.5%

Real Madrid win: 46.9%

Predicted: Real Madrid

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 78.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 65.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.47

More corners: Real Madrid (46.9% home / 53.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Real Madrid

Yes

Probability Real Madrid wins or draws: 75.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Real Madrid Clearest lean of the available outcomes (47% vs next-best 28%). (47.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (78.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (65.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Real Madrid win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (75.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.